What is a Monte Carlo simulation?

Monte Carlo simulation is a computational algorithm that uses repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results, particularly in scenarios where the system being modeled is complex and characterized by uncertainty. The approach involves generating a large number of random inputs for a given statistical model and analyzing the outcomes. By simulating a wide array of possible scenarios, it allows for the estimation of probabilities and risk assessments, making it a powerful tool in risk modeling.

This technique is particularly valuable in fields where outcomes are influenced by many random variables, such as finance, engineering, and environmental science. For example, in finance, Monte Carlo simulations are often used to evaluate the risk and uncertainty that would affect the value of an asset or the performance of a portfolio.

In contrast, deterministic modeling does not incorporate randomness or uncertainty; it assumes a fixed outcome based on input parameters. Practical experiments to measure risks may provide insightful data, but they lack the extensive simulation capabilities of Monte Carlo methods. Real-time data analysis involves immediate processing of data as it is generated, which is different from the repeated sampling approach that characterizes Monte Carlo simulation.